Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles held off the Kansas City Royals 3-2 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on June 9, 2023, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening at an 83 percent pre-game probability favoring Baltimore and closing at 100 percent by the final out. Baltimore built its lead incrementally, scoring in the first, second, and fifth innings while keeping Kansas City largely at bay. Anthony Santander's double in the bottom of the fifth off Daniel Lynch IV, which added 7.0 percent in win probability, proved to be a meaningful insurance contribution as Baltimore extended its advantage to three runs at that point.

Kansas City's most significant threat came in the eighth inning, where the Royals briefly generated momentum. Drew Waters had drawn a walk in the seventh off Tyler Wells to push Kansas City's win probability up 7.9 percent, and Nick Pratto followed with a single off Yennier Cano in the eighth for another 7.9 percent swing. However, Salvador Perez immediately erased that momentum by grounding into a double play off Cano, a single play that swung win probability 16.4 percent against the Royals and effectively ended their comeback bid. Cano finished as Baltimore's second-most impactful pitcher by WPA at plus 10.8 percent.

Felix Bautista closed out the game in the ninth, recording the game's top pitching performance at plus 15.2 percent in win probability, including a strikeout of MJ Melendez that shifted the probability 7.1 percent in Baltimore's favor and sealed the victory. Nick Pratto led Kansas City's batters at plus 5.8 percent WPA despite the team's loss, while Gunnar Henderson and Nicky Lopez paced Baltimore's offensive contributors at plus 5.5 and plus 5.2 percent respectively. Daniel Lynch IV added plus 8.9 percent on the mound for the Orioles, who finished with eight hits against Kansas City's seven in a clean, error-free contest for both sides.