Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves defeated the Washington Nationals 3-2 on June 9, 2023, at Truist Park, completing a come-from-behind win that the DiamondIQ model had projected as a 74 percent home-side probability before first pitch. Washington struck first in the top of the first inning and added a run in the sixth, while Atlanta managed only a single run through seven innings before breaking through decisively in the bottom of the eighth to take the lead for good.

The eighth inning was the decisive sequence, and the win-probability swings within it told the story clearly. Orlando Arcia's single off Kyle Finnegan was the game's most consequential plate appearance, shifting win probability by plus 18.1 percent in Atlanta's favor. Eddie Rosario followed with a single of his own, adding another plus 10.4 percent swing, also against Finnegan. Marcell Ozuna then grounded out, but even that out moved the needle plus 10.0 percent as Atlanta converted the run. The inning was not without tension — Ozzie Albies popped out at a cost of minus 8.7 percent — but Atlanta ultimately pushed two runs across in the frame to take the 3-2 lead. Earlier, Rosario's strikeout against Josiah Gray to close the first inning had been the most damaging single plate appearance for the Braves, carrying a minus 9.5 percent swing.

On the pitching side, Josiah Gray was the standout performer by win-probability contribution, finishing at plus 28.7 percent for Washington, while Atlanta's Raisel Iglesias posted plus 15.2 percent and Carl Edwards Jr. added plus 9.7 percent in relief. Among hitters, Marcell Ozuna led all batters with a plus 15.3 percent WPA and plus 0.9 RE24, followed by Jeimer Candelario at plus 11.2 percent WPA and Arcia at plus 8.2 percent WPA. The DiamondIQ model closed at 100 percent probability in Atlanta's favor, reflecting a late-game margin that Washington was unable to answer.