Arizona Diamondbacks at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks dismantled the Detroit Tigers 11-6 at Comerica Park on June 9, 2023, erasing what the DiamondIQ model estimated as a 36 percent pre-game home win probability for Detroit down to zero by the final out. The game was largely competitive through six innings before Arizona broke it open with a seven-run seventh that effectively ended the contest. Corbin Carroll delivered the decisive blow of the inning, launching a home run off Will Vest that shifted win probability by 11.0 percentage points in Arizona's favor, the single largest swing of the game. Ketel Marte drew a walk against Vest earlier in that frame worth 8.8 percentage points, and Josh Rojas added a sacrifice bunt off Michael Lorenzen that moved the needle another 6.9 points, illustrating how the rally built through both power and execution. Christian Walker then doubled off Lorenzen for a 9.4-point swing, piling onto a Detroit bullpen that could not stem the damage.

Detroit's most meaningful response came in the second inning, when Zack Short doubled off Merrill Kelly for a 9.2-point swing, a sequence that made Short the Tigers' top performer by WPA on the night at plus-9.6 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.0. Kerry Carpenter also contributed positively for Detroit at plus-6.5 percent WPA, but those efforts were ultimately insufficient given the avalanche Arizona produced late. Carroll finished as the game's most impactful Arizona hitter by RE24 at plus-5.1, reflecting the run-environment value he generated beyond the probability shift of his home run. Merrill Kelly led all pitchers with a plus-6.7 percent WPA contribution for the Diamondbacks, holding Detroit in check long enough for Arizona's offense to take command in the seventh and close out a convincing road victory.