New York Mets at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves rallied past the New York Mets 13-10 on June 8, 2023, at Truist Park in a game that swung dramatically over its final innings. The DiamondIQ model entered with a 67 percent home win probability for Atlanta, and while the Mets threatened to flip that number through the middle frames, the model's estimate climbed to 100 percent by the final out as the Braves authored one of their most eventful home wins of the season.

The decisive sequence began in the bottom of the eighth, when Travis d'Arnaud connected on a home run off Drew Smith that shifted win probability by 23.9 points in Atlanta's favor, trimming what had been a deficit and repositioning the Braves. The game reached its emotional peak in the bottom of the ninth, when Orlando Arcia launched a home run off David Robertson, the single largest win-probability swing of the night at plus-47.1 percent. That blow alone nearly flipped the entire game's outcome in one swing. Atlanta then needed extra innings to close it out, and Ozzie Albies delivered a walk-off home run off Tommy Hunter in the bottom of the tenth, adding another 42.9 points of win probability to seal the final at 13-10.

Arcia finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-49.6 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.6, while d'Arnaud posted a plus-33.3 percent WPA and led Atlanta's contributors with a RE24 of plus-2.7. On the New York side, Francisco Alvarez was the standout, producing a plus-28.2 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.5 on the strength of a fourth-inning home run off Spencer Strider worth 17.7 win-probability points. Brandon Nimmo also went deep against Strider in the second inning for a 17.0-point swing, giving the Mets two significant blows against Atlanta's starter, but the Braves bullpen trio of Jeff Brigham, Jesse Chavez, and Joe Jiménez combined to stabilize the situation enough for Atlanta's late-game power to take over.