Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Angels: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Angels defeated the Chicago Cubs 3-1 at Angel Stadium on June 8, 2023, a result the DiamondIQ model leaned toward from the start, assigning the home side a 65% pre-game win probability that climbed to 100% by the final out. The Angels did their most decisive damage in the second inning, when Jo Adell connected on a home run off Drew Smyly that added 7.7% to Los Angeles's win probability and put the Cubs on their heels early. The Angels extended their lead with a run in the sixth, where Shohei Ohtani's groundout — counterintuitively the single biggest win-probability swing of the game at plus 8.5% — came in a situation loaded enough that even a routine out pushed the Angels closer to victory. The Cubs' best chance to claw back came in the fourth, when Seiya Suzuki doubled off Reid Detmers to add 4.8% to Chicago's win probability, but the threat went unresolved. Chicago finished with a two-error night in the field and managed only five hits, never able to seriously threaten the Angels' cushion.

On the pitching side, the Angels received the strongest contributions from their relief corps. Chris Devenski led all pitchers with plus 12.6% in win probability added, holding the Cubs scoreless in a critical stretch that included a minus 5.4% groundout from Miguel Amaya in the sixth. Reid Detmers and José Soriano added 9.3% and 8.1% respectively, combining to limit Chicago to a single run across the game. For the Cubs, Smyly bore the brunt of the damage, surrendering both the Adell home run and the run in the sixth. Offensively, Ohtani led Angel batters with plus 6.9% in WPA, while Chad Wallach contributed plus 5.7% WPA and a run expectancy increase of plus 1.1, providing quiet but meaningful production behind the lineup's headliners.