Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Boston Red Sox escaped Progressive Field with a 5-4 victory over the Cleveland Guardians on June 6, 2023, in a game that remained tightly contested until the final out. Cleveland entered with a 48 percent pre-game win probability according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate, and that figure held close through the early innings before the game's decisive moments were compressed almost entirely into the eighth. Boston broke a scoreless tie with a single run in the sixth, then erupted for four more in the top of the eighth off Enyel De Los Santos, with Enrique Hernández's walk during that frame adding 16.8 percent in win probability and accounting for 21.3 percent overall on the night. Cleveland answered immediately with two runs of its own in the bottom half, with Will Brennan's double off Chris Martin swinging the game 24.3 percent toward the Guardians and making Brennan the second-most impactful batter of the evening by WPA at plus-27.8 percent. Myles Straw's strikeout in that same inning, however, subtracted 19.9 percent from Cleveland's chances and proved a critical turning point in arresting the rally.

Kenley Jansen closed out the ninth, and the game's single largest win-probability swing came on José Ramírez's flyout to end it, a moment that shifted the outcome 31.6 percent in Boston's favor and cemented Ramírez as the top WPA batter on the night at plus-34.8 percent despite the negative result reflecting his team's loss of that final opportunity. On the pitching side, Shane Bieber led all pitchers with plus-17.3 percent WPA for Cleveland, followed by Sam Hentges at plus-13.2 percent, which included benefiting from Connor Wong's ground into a double play in the seventh that cost Boston 13.2 percent in win probability. James Paxton contributed plus-9.7 percent for Boston. The Red Sox finished with 10 hits and no errors against Cleveland's 10 hits and one error, a clean defensive night that helped preserve a lead that at points looked far from safe.