Kansas City Royals at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins defeated the Kansas City Royals 9-6 at loanDepot park on June 5, 2023, completing a game the DiamondIQ model had forecasted heavily toward Miami from the start, with a pre-game home win probability of 76% that climbed to 100% by the final out. Miami's decisive stretch came in the fourth inning, where the Marlins plated four runs to take command of the contest. The biggest single swing of the game came when Jon Berti tripled off Mike Mayers in the bottom of the fourth, a play that shifted win probability by plus 20.4 percentage points. Jonathan Davis followed with a double off Mayers that added another 14.4 percentage points, and Luis Arraez had extended the Marlins' advantage earlier with a double off Mayers in the third, worth plus 10.9 percentage points. Kansas City's two errors contributed to the difficulty of keeping Miami off the board, as the Royals finished with a 9/2 error line against Miami's clean 0.

On the individual ledger, Berti led all batters with a WPA of plus 25.7 and an RE24 of plus 2.0, while Arraez was close behind at plus 20.1 WPA and plus 1.9 RE24, giving the Marlins two of the most impactful offensive performances of the night. Davis added plus 10.2 WPA to round out Miami's top contributors at the plate. On the pitching side, Carlos Hernandez was the standout for Kansas City's opposition, posting a WPA of plus 27.9, aided in part by consecutive strikeouts of Garrett Cooper in the first and Nick Fortes in the second that cost Miami a combined 24.0 percentage points in win probability early. Andrew Nardi contributed plus 10.2 WPA in relief, and Dylan Floro added plus 3.0, as Miami's collective effort on the mound proved sufficient to hold off a Royals lineup that managed nine hits but could not sustain its early two-run advantage from the first inning.