St. Louis Cardinals at Texas Rangers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| TEX | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 1 |
The Story
The Texas Rangers edged the St. Louis Cardinals 4-3 at Globe Life Field on June 5, 2023, in a game the DiamondIQ model entered favoring the home side at 77% and closed at 100% after a walk-off finish in the bottom of the ninth. Texas built its foundation in the second inning, scoring three runs against Adam Wainwright to take an early lead that proved difficult for St. Louis to fully overcome. The Cardinals pulled within one in the top of the eighth when Tommy Edman singled off Grant Anderson, a hit that shifted win probability by plus 15.2 percentage points and briefly tightened what had looked like a comfortable Rangers advantage. St. Louis added another run that frame to make it a 4-3 game heading to the ninth, but Texas wasted little time ending it.
The decisive moment came in the bottom of the ninth when Nathaniel Lowe singled off Génesis Cabrera to plate the winning run, a swing of plus 29.4 percentage points that was the largest single-play win-probability impact of the night. Lowe finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus 25.9 percentage points with a RE24 of plus 1.2, underscoring just how central he was to the outcome. On the mound, Martín Pérez led all pitchers with plus 13.8 percentage points of win probability added, aided in part by Brendan Donovan's seventh-inning double play that cost the Cardinals minus 7.8 percentage points. Will Smith and Ryan Helsley each contributed meaningfully in relief, combining for plus 27.3 percentage points of pitching WPA to preserve the Rangers' narrow margin through the final frames.