Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers handed the Cincinnati Reds a 5-1 defeat at Great American Ball Park on June 4, 2023, doing their most significant damage in the first and fifth innings while holding Cincinnati largely in check throughout. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving the Reds a 44% chance of winning at home, a figure that eroded steadily before closing at 0% by the final out.

The turning point of the game came in the fourth inning, where Cincinnati briefly threatened before Adrian Houser extinguished the rally in decisive fashion. Matt McLain had opened the door with a double that shifted the run expectancy in Cincinnati's favor, adding 6.5% to the Reds' win probability, but Houser responded by retiring Jake Fraley on a flyout and then inducing Spencer Steer into a double play that single-handedly swung win probability by negative 10.1 percentage points, the largest single-play swing of the contest. That sequence encapsulated the afternoon for Cincinnati — promising situations that went unrealized. Victor Caratini then put the game further out of reach in the top of the fifth with a home run off Ben Lively, a swing worth 6.9% in Milwaukee's favor that pushed the Brewers' lead to five runs.

Adrian Houser was the central figure of the afternoon, finishing with a cumulative win-probability contribution of plus 30.5%, by far the most impactful performance on either side. Caratini led Milwaukee's offensive contributors with a WPA of plus 7.4% and a RE24 of plus 1.0, while McLain was Cincinnati's lone bright spot at the plate, posting a WPA of plus 5.7% despite the Reds' inability to convert his double into a run. The DiamondIQ model's estimate ultimately reflected a one-sided outcome that the line score confirmed.