Toronto Blue Jays at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays handed the New York Mets a 6-4 defeat at Citi Field on June 4, 2023, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Mets win opening the game at 49% and closing at 0%. Toronto built its lead incrementally through the middle innings before a pivotal seventh-inning swing proved decisive. The Blue Jays scored twice in both the second and third innings, while New York answered with a run in the third, a run in the fifth, and a two-run sixth that briefly tightened the game before Toronto reasserted control.

The single most consequential moment of the contest came in the top of the seventh, when Brandon Belt connected on a home run off Dominic Leone that shifted win probability 26.7 percentage points in Toronto's favor. That blow effectively ended the game as a competitive affair. Earlier, the Mets had mounted their most meaningful threat in the bottom of the sixth, where Starling Marte's home run off Nate Pearson added 15.5 percentage points to New York's chances, followed moments later by Pete Alonso's home run off Pearson worth another 13.7 points. Any remaining Mets hope evaporated in the bottom of the seventh when Francisco Alvarez grounded into a double play off Adam Cimber, a swing of negative 14.0 percentage points, and then in the ninth when Jeff McNeil's lineout against Jordan Romano, which registered a 14.4-point WPA play, sealed the outcome.

Among individual performers, Belt led all batters with a WPA of plus 21.7 and an RE24 of plus 0.9, while Tommy Pham contributed plus 15.0 WPA and a game-high plus 1.7 RE24. Marte was the top Mets performer at plus 14.5 WPA and plus 1.1 RE24. On the pitching side, Erik Swanson paced Toronto's relievers with plus 13.3 WPA, supported by Cimber at plus 8.8 and Stephen Nogosek at plus 8.5, as the Blue Jays bullpen collectively protected the lead through the final three innings.