Toronto Blue Jays at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays defeated the New York Mets 2-1 at Citi Field on June 3, 2023, in a tightly contested game that entered the night with the DiamondIQ model's estimate giving New York a 51 percent pre-game win probability. The Blue Jays scratched across a run in the sixth inning and added an insurance run in the ninth to secure the road victory, leaving the Mets with no win probability remaining when the final out was recorded.

The decisive swing of the game came in the top of the ninth, when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. doubled off David Robertson to shift the win probability 34.0 percentage points in Toronto's favor. That hit was the single largest play of the contest and proved to be the difference-maker, as the Blue Jays pushed across what became the winning run on the sequence. The Mets mounted pressure in the bottom of the ninth, but Erik Swanson closed the door by striking out Brandon Nimmo, a play that added 27.0 percentage points to Toronto's win probability and ended any realistic New York threat. Earlier, in the sixth inning, Alejandro Kirk's single off Brooks Raley had provided a quieter but meaningful 12.0-point swing that put the Blue Jays on the board.

Guerrero Jr. finished as the top offensive performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting a WPA of plus-28.3 percent on the night. Brandon Belt contributed meaningfully as well, logging a WPA of plus-16.5 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.5, driven largely by his eighth-inning double off Adam Ottavino. On the pitching side, Tylor Megill led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-16.1 percent for the Mets, while José Berríos matched him nearly identically at plus-16.0 percent for Toronto, underscoring how dominant both starters were through much of the evening before the bullpens took over and the late-inning drama unfolded.