Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 1 |
| CIN | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
The Story
The Milwaukee Brewers survived a back-and-forth contest at Great American Ball Park on June 2, 2023, edging the Cincinnati Reds 5-4 in eleven innings. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Cincinnati a slim 47 percent win probability, and what followed justified the tightness of that projection, with neither side able to separate itself through nine innings after the Reds scratched out two runs in the third and Milwaukee answered with one in the fourth to hold a 3-3 tie heading into extras.
The decisive moments came in the eleventh inning, where the biggest win-probability swings of the night were clustered. Owen Miller's single off Alex Young in the top of the tenth had already added 24.7 percent to Milwaukee's win probability, though William Contreras's strikeout against Young in that same frame swung 18.7 percent back toward Cincinnati and kept the game knotted. In the top of the eleventh, Andruw Monasterio delivered a single off Fernando Cruz that shifted the DiamondIQ model's estimate by 32.0 percent in Milwaukee's favor, the single largest swing of the game, ultimately plating the runs that made it 5-4. Cincinnati mounted a response in the bottom half, but Spencer Steer's groundout against Bryse Wilson, while adding 21.4 percent to the Reds' side, came too late to reverse the outcome.
Monasterio was the clear standout performer of the night, finishing with a cumulative WPA of plus-51.1 percent and an RE24 of plus-2.4, driven almost entirely by his clutch eleventh-inning work. Jonathan India provided the most impactful blow for Cincinnati, a home run off Corbin Burnes in the third inning worth plus-21.0 percent in win probability and a WPA total of plus-30.8 on the night. On the mound, Alexis Díaz led Milwaukee's relievers with plus-13.5 percent WPA, followed by Peter Strzelecki at plus-10.9 percent and Lucas Sims at plus-10.6 percent, a collective bullpen effort that held Cincinnati in check through the final frames and secured the one-run road victory.