Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks held off the Atlanta Braves 3-2 at Chase Field on June 2, 2023, completing a win that the DiamondIQ model had set at a 57 percent home-team probability before first pitch. Arizona scored twice in the bottom of the first to establish an early lead, and Christian Walker added to it with a double off Charlie Morton in the third that carried a win-probability swing of plus-10.8 percent. Atlanta answered with a run in the second and then trimmed the deficit to one on an Eddie Rosario home run off Merrill Kelly in the seventh, a swing worth plus-12.7 percent in win probability. That brought Atlanta within a run entering the ninth, but the Braves could not complete the comeback.

The ninth inning defined the game's final shape. Miguel Castro worked through Atlanta's last-gasp rally, and the two most consequential moments came in sequence: an Eddie Rosario single added plus-17.5 percent win probability and kept the Braves briefly alive, but an Ozzie Albies flyout swung the probability minus-20.4 percent, the single largest swing of the game, and an Orlando Arcia groundout at minus-12.7 percent sealed Arizona's victory. Rosario finished as the most impactful individual on either side despite playing for the losing team, posting a combined WPA of plus-33.6 percent and an RE24 of plus-2.3 across his home run and single. For Arizona, Walker led position players with a plus-20.0 percent WPA, while Merrill Kelly paced the pitching staff at plus-17.9 percent, with Castro contributing plus-15.2 percent in the final frame to preserve the one-run win.