Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 4-2 on June 1, 2023, at Citi Field, improving the DiamondIQ model's pre-game home win probability estimate from 62% to a final 100% by the time the final out was recorded. The Phillies managed just two runs on six hits against a Mets pitching staff that held firm after an early deficit, while New York produced four runs on four hits despite committing one error.

The decisive blow came in the bottom of the fourth inning, when Mark Canha connected on a home run off Taijuan Walker that shifted win probability by +21.6%, the single largest swing of the game. That blast capped a sequence that had seen the Mets build incrementally, adding a run in the third and two more in the fourth to take a commanding lead. Earlier in the game, New York left some opportunity on the table — Daniel Vogelbach's lineout in the second inning cost the Mets 10.4 percentage points of win probability, and Jeff McNeil's groundout in the first erased another 7.9 points — but McNeil partially offset those misses with a single in the third that added 6.7 percentage points heading into the middle innings.

Canha finished as the game's top offensive performer by WPA at +19.7% with a RE24 of +1.7, while Nick Castellanos led all players in RE24 at +1.8 despite Philadelphia's loss, finishing with a WPA of +9.1%. On the mound, Max Scherzer was the most valuable arm of the evening at +18.8% WPA, with Jeff Brigham providing critical support at +8.1% and Brooks Raley adding +3.9% to close out the Phillies. The DiamondIQ model favors the Mets' performance as a clean team effort anchored by Scherzer and punctuated by Canha's pivotal fourth-inning swing.