Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

The Minnesota Twins defeated the Cleveland Guardians 7-6 on June 1, 2023, at Target Field in a game that swung dramatically before the Twins ultimately closed it out. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 62 percent home win probability and ended at 100 percent, but the path between those figures was far from smooth. Cleveland seized control in the top of the sixth inning, posting five runs against Pablo López in the game's single most damaging offensive frame. José Ramírez delivered a single worth +16.2 percent in win probability during that rally, and Mike Zunino followed with a single of his own that added another +20.4 percent, pushing the Guardians to what looked like a commanding advantage heading into the late innings.

Minnesota's comeback was built inning by inning in the back half of the game. The Twins answered with three runs in the bottom of the eighth against Trevor Stephan, a sequence anchored by Donovan Solano's double worth +17.8 percent in win probability and Royce Lewis's go-ahead home run, the single biggest swing of the night at +33.1 percent. Lewis finished as Minnesota's top batter by WPA at +17.0 percent, while Solano and Zunino rounded out the top performers on opposing sides with Solano posting a +1.3 RE24. Jorge Polanco then put the game out of reach in the bottom of the ninth with a double off Eli Morgan that added +22.0 percent in win probability, providing the Twins their final margin. On the pitching side, Griffin Jax was Minnesota's most valuable arm, contributing +13.5 percent in win probability as the Twins' bullpen secured the final outs after Cleveland's sixth-inning outburst.