Cincinnati Reds at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds defeated the Boston Red Sox 5-4 at Fenway Park on May 31, 2023, overcoming a pre-game DiamondIQ model estimate that gave Boston a 58 percent chance of winning at home. The Reds built their lead incrementally through seven innings, but the decisive blow came in the top of the seventh when Spencer Steer connected on a home run off Josh Winckowski, a swing that shifted win probability by 27.6 percent in Cincinnati's favor and pushed the Reds to a 5-2 advantage. Boston attempted to claw back in the eighth on a Masataka Yoshida double off Lucas Sims, a hit worth 12.4 percent in win probability, but Sims ultimately worked through the frame and limited the damage, finishing the game as one of the team's top pitching contributors by WPA at plus 4.5 percent.

The final at-bat of the game produced the single largest win-probability swing of the night, and it belonged to Rafael Devers. His flyout to end the bottom of the ninth — with the tying run presumably on base — registered a 31.6 percent win-probability added in Boston's favor in the moment of contact, meaning the play represented the game's most consequential swing even in defeat. Devers finished as the top individual WPA performer at plus 46.6 percent across his full line, pairing that with a 0.7 RE24 mark. Spencer Steer was close behind at plus 34.2 percent WPA and led all position players with a 1.9 RE24. Luke Maile also contributed meaningfully at plus 15.9 percent WPA and 1.3 RE24. On the mound, Ian Gibaut led Cincinnati's relievers at plus 8.6 percent WPA, with James Paxton adding plus 7.2 percent as the Reds held on for the road victory.