San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins walked off the San Diego Padres 2-1 on May 31, 2023, at loanDepot park, erasing a one-run deficit with two runs in the bottom of the ninth against closer Josh Hader. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had Miami entering the game as a 60 percent favorite, a number that briefly collapsed before climbing back to certainty by the final out.

The decisive swing of momentum came in the bottom of the eighth, when Luis Arraez grounded into a double play against Nick Martinez, a sequence that cost Miami 43.8 percent in win probability and left the Marlins stranded with the score still 1-0 in San Diego's favor. That near-miss set the stage for the ninth, where Hader could not hold the lead. Nick Fortes opened the rally with a single that added 41.4 percent to Miami's win probability, and Jean Segura followed with a walk-off knock worth 30.1 percent, capping a three-batter sequence that also included a Yuli Gurriel walk adding 12.3 percent. The Padres finished with just two hits on the night against a Miami pitching staff that held them to a single run through eight innings.

Jean Segura led all position players with a 30.9 percent WPA contribution and a 0.7 RE24 mark on the strength of his game-ending single, while Nick Fortes posted 25.6 percent WPA and Jorge Soler added 10.6 percent and 0.6 RE24 largely on his eighth-inning walk. On the mound, Blake Snell was the night's most valuable arm at plus-36.3 percent WPA, followed by Nick Martinez at plus-23.3 percent and Huascar Brazobán at plus-20.3 percent, a trio that kept the Marlins within reach long enough for the ninth-inning comeback to materialize.