Milwaukee Brewers at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 4-2 at Rogers Centre on May 31, 2023, handing Toronto a loss despite the DiamondIQ model entering the game with a 53 percent home win probability for the Blue Jays. The game turned decisively in the seventh inning, when Owen Miller delivered a double off Tim Mayza that swung win probability by 19.8 points in Milwaukee's favor. That single swing was the largest win-probability event of the contest and proved to be the decisive blow, pushing a 2-1 Brewers lead into a two-run cushion that Toronto could not overcome. A two-run seventh allowed Milwaukee to carry a 4-1 advantage into the final two innings.

Toronto's most meaningful contributions came in bursts that ultimately fell short. Kevin Kiermaier's fifth-inning triple off Julio Teheran represented a 14.3-point win-probability swing for the Blue Jays and cut into the deficit, while Daulton Varsho's double off Devin Williams in the ninth added 10.9 points and Whit Merrifield's single off Joel Payamps in the seventh contributed 9.7 points for Toronto. However, Alejandro Kirk's lineout to end a late threat was actually scored as a positive swing of 11.6 points for Toronto's win probability, reflecting how close the Blue Jays came to extending the game before falling short.

On the individual performance ledger, Owen Miller finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-19.2, paired with a RE24 of plus-1.0, while Abraham Toro posted the strongest RE24 among Milwaukee hitters at plus-1.6 to go along with a plus-7.0 WPA. On the pitching side, Julio Teheran led all pitchers with a plus-25.1 WPA, followed by Peter Strzelecki at plus-13.3 and Trevor Richards at plus-10.3, a collective mound effort that kept Toronto's lineup from mounting any sustained threat against the DiamondIQ model's ultimate outcome of a zero percent home win probability at game's end.