MLB Recap · May 31, 2023

Los Angeles Angels at Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Recap

LAA12
Final
CWS5

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
LAA20420020212130
CWS0100001035120

The Story

The Los Angeles Angels rolled to a 12-5 victory over the Chicago White Sox on May 31, 2023, at Guaranteed Rate Field, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected convincingly as Chicago's pre-game 41 percent home win probability collapsed to zero by the final out. The Angels built their advantage early and often, scoring two in the first, four in the third, and two more in the fourth to put the game well out of reach before the middle innings arrived.

The decisive stretch came in the third inning, where Shohei Ohtani delivered the game's most impactful play, a home run off Lance Lynn that swung win probability 16.7 percent in Los Angeles's favor. Jared Walsh followed with a double off Lynn that added another 8.5 percent, and Ohtani returned in the fourth to connect for a second home run against Lynn, this time contributing a 4.6 percent swing. The two Ohtani blasts anchored a performance that finished with a combined WPA of plus-21.3 percent and an RE24 of plus-3.5, the clearest individual force in the game. Walsh supported him with a WPA of plus-7.5 and an RE24 of plus-1.5, while Yasmani Grandal contributed a plus-4.9 WPA mark, his fourth-inning walk off Jaime Barria in the bottom of the second accounting for a 4.7 percent probability shift for Chicago.

On the pitching side, Jaime Barria led Los Angeles's staff with a WPA of plus-5.5, navigating the White Sox lineup with enough efficiency to keep the Angels' lead intact through the middle frames. Chicago generated 12 hits but could not convert them into the sustained scoring needed to threaten a comeback, and the Angels finished with 13 hits and no errors to complete a thorough road win.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025LAA bats firstFinalCWS win %LAA win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 41% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Shohei Ohtani Home Run
Top 3rd · off Lance Lynn
+16.7%
Jared Walsh Double
Top 3rd · off Lance Lynn
+8.5%
Bot 2nd · off Jaime Barria
+4.7%
Shohei Ohtani Home Run
Top 4th · off Lance Lynn
+4.6%
Romy Gonzalez Strikeout
Bot 2nd · off Jaime Barria
-3.8%

Top Batters by WPA

Shohei Ohtani+21.3%+3.5 RE24
Jared Walsh+7.5%+1.5 RE24
Yasmani Grandal+4.9%+0.5 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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