MLB Recap · May 30, 2023

New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

NYY10
Final
SEA2

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
NYY30310010210122
SEA000020000281

The Story

The New York Yankees routed the Seattle Mariners 10-2 at T-Mobile Park on May 30, 2023, a result that moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Seattle win from 45% before first pitch to 0% by the final out. The Yankees struck early and often, plating three runs in the first inning and three more in the third, effectively removing any reasonable path to a Mariners comeback before the game reached its midpoint. Seattle managed two runs in the fifth but never seriously threatened to close the gap, finishing with a 10-run deficit against a Yankees club that collected 12 hits to the Mariners' 8.

The decisive sequence came in the top of the third, when Anthony Volpe connected on a home run off Logan Gilbert that shifted win probability by plus-14.9 percentage points, the single largest swing of the game. That blow came on the heels of a first inning in which Volpe's strikeout — a win-probability-neutral outcome that nonetheless reflected Gilbert's early command struggles — contributed a plus-4.5-point swing in a frame the Yankees had already taken 3-0. On the Seattle side, the two biggest negative swings came from their own hitters: José Caballero's pop out off Nestor Cortes in the second cost the Mariners 8.1 percentage points of win probability, and Teoscar Hernández's forceout in the first erased another 6.1 points.

Volpe finished as the game's top performer by a wide margin, accumulating plus-19.0% WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.4 on the strength of his homer and his consistent presence at the plate throughout the night. Aaron Judge added plus-5.4% WPA and led all players with a RE24 of plus-1.6, while Cal Raleigh was Seattle's lone positive contributor at plus-3.6% WPA. On the mound, Nestor Cortes was the game's most impactful pitcher, posting plus-16.9% WPA by neutralizing the Mariners' lineup through the critical early innings when Seattle might otherwise have climbed back into contention. Michael King contributed plus-2.6% WPA in relief, and Tayler Saucedo added plus-0.6% on the Seattle side in a limited appearance.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025NYY bats firstFinalSEA win %NYY win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 45.2% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Anthony Volpe Home Run
Top 3rd · off Logan Gilbert
+14.9%
José Caballero Pop Out
Bot 2nd · off Nestor Cortes
-8.1%
Teoscar Hernández Forceout
Bot 1st · off Nestor Cortes
-6.1%
Anthony Volpe Strikeout
Top 1st · off Logan Gilbert
+4.5%
Aaron Judge Strikeout
Top 2nd · off Logan Gilbert
+4.0%

Top Batters by WPA

Anthony Volpe+19.0%+1.4 RE24
Aaron Judge+5.4%+1.6 RE24
Cal Raleigh+3.6%+0.4 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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