Cincinnati Reds at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 12 | 0 |
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 2 |
The Story
The Cincinnati Reds took down the Boston Red Sox 9-8 at Fenway Park on May 30, 2023, overcoming a pre-game environment where the DiamondIQ model's estimate gave Boston a 59% chance of winning at home. The Reds built their advantage gradually, scoring in the second, fifth, and sixth innings before a five-run seventh inning proved to be the decisive burst. Boston responded with a five-run ninth of their own, but it fell one run short, leaving the DiamondIQ model's final estimate at 0% for a Boston victory. Cincinnati finished with 12 hits and committed no errors, while Boston collected 14 hits but was hurt by two errors that contributed to their undoing.
The swing moments of the game told the story clearly. Jake Fraley's double off Justin Garza in the top of the fifth shifted win probability 12.7 points toward Cincinnati, and Matt McLain's fielders choice off Garza in the sixth added another 11.2 points, keeping Boston's pitching staff under sustained pressure across consecutive innings. Will Benson's triple off Brayan Bello in the fourth had already moved the needle 9.1 points in Cincinnati's favor, giving the Reds an early foothold. Boston's most damaging missed opportunity came in the bottom of the second, when Reese McGuire lined out against Ben Lively, a play that cost Boston 10.9 points of win probability at a moment when the game was still very much in reach.
Ben Lively was the standout performer of the night by a wide margin, posting a WPA of plus-33.8, anchoring the Reds' pitching effort through the bulk of the game. Among position players, Triston Casas led all batters with a WPA of plus-13.5 despite a negative RE24 of minus-2.0, largely driven by the framing of the final out situation in the ninth when his strikeout against Alexis Díaz added 19.0 points to Cincinnati's win probability and sealed the game. Will Benson contributed plus-11.0 WPA and Masataka Yoshida added plus-10.4 WPA with a positive RE24 of plus-1.9, giving Boston runners throughout but ultimately not enough to complete the comeback.