MLB Recap · May 28, 2023

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

PHI4
Final
ATL11

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
PHI002000200463
ATL70003010-11200

The Story

The Atlanta Braves handled the Philadelphia Phillies decisively on May 28, 2023, at Truist Park, rolling to an 11-4 final behind a historically lopsided performance. Atlanta's offense erupted for seven runs in the first inning alone and added three more in the fifth, effectively turning the contest into a non-competitive affair well before the middle innings. The DiamondIQ model opened with Atlanta as a 67% favorite and closed at 100%, a reflection of how thoroughly the Braves dismantled a Philadelphia squad that also contributed to its own demise with three errors on the night. The Phillies managed just six hits and four runs, two of which came on a Brandon Marsh home run off Spencer Strider in the third.

The decisive sequence of the game unfolded in the first inning, where Matt Olson's home run off Dylan Covey added 3.6% to Atlanta's win probability before the Braves had barely settled into the game. From a DiamondIQ model standpoint, the most impactful individual moment came in the bottom of the first, when Olson was caught stealing second base off Jeff Hoffman, a play that paradoxically registered a 7.3% swing in Atlanta's favor given the broader game state. Sean Murphy's ground into a double play in the second inning also added 7.3% to Atlanta's win probability. On the Philadelphia side, J.T. Realmuto's strikeout against Strider in the second inning was the game's single most damaging moment for the Phillies, costing them 7.8% in win probability at a point when a rally might have threatened Atlanta's advantage.

Olson finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, accumulating a combined WPA of plus 11.5% alongside a RE24 of plus 2.9, while Ronald Acuña Jr. posted the best RE24 of any batter at plus 3.5 to go with a plus 4.9% WPA contribution. On the mound, Spencer Strider was the top-rated pitcher, adding 6.8% to Atlanta's win probability across his outing despite surrendering Marsh's homer. Atlanta's 20-hit output and clean defensive performance, zero errors against Philadelphia's three, underscored the totality of the Braves' command of the contest.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025PHI bats firstFinalATL win %PHI win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 66.7% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

J.T. Realmuto Strikeout
Top 2nd · off Spencer Strider
-7.8%
Sean Murphy Grounded Into DP
Bot 2nd · off Jeff Hoffman
+7.3%
Matt Olson Caught Stealing 2B
Bot 1st · off Jeff Hoffman
+7.3%
Brandon Marsh Home Run
Top 3rd · off Spencer Strider
+4.8%
Matt Olson Home Run
Bot 1st · off Dylan Covey
+3.6%

Top Batters by WPA

Matt Olson+11.5%+2.9 RE24
Sean Murphy+8.0%+0.1 RE24
Ronald Acuña Jr.+4.9%+3.5 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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