San Diego Padres at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap

The New York Yankees defeated the San Diego Padres 10-7 on May 28, 2023 at Yankee Stadium, a game the DiamondIQ model opened with a 66 percent home win probability that ultimately reached 100 percent. The Yankees scored in just five of nine innings but concentrated their damage effectively, with a seven-run third inning serving as the decisive sequence that put the game largely out of reach. The Padres mounted a three-run seventh inning to briefly apply pressure, but New York's bullpen held the advantage through the final frames to secure the victory.

The biggest single play of the night by win-probability impact came in the bottom of the third, when Gleyber Torres singled off Yu Darvish to swing the DiamondIQ model's estimate by plus 13.5 percent in the Yankees' favor, with Anthony Rizzo adding to the damage in the same frame via a single off Darvish worth plus 9.8 percent. The Padres' most meaningful counterswing came in the top of the seventh, when Trent Grisham doubled off Jimmy Cordero for a plus 13.4 percent shift, the lone moment that nudged the probability back toward San Diego before the Yankees' bullpen shut things down. On the negative side, Isiah Kiner-Falefa's groundout in the bottom of the second cost New York 9.9 percent in win probability, representing the Yankees' costliest missed opportunity of the night.

Trent Grisham led all batters in WPA at plus 15.1 percent to go with a RE24 of plus 1.3, making him San Diego's most impactful offensive contributor despite the loss. On the New York side, Kyle Higashioka posted a plus 13.4 percent WPA and led all players with a RE24 of plus 2.6, while Gleyber Torres contributed plus 11.5 percent WPA to round out the Yankees' top performers. Among pitchers, Ron Marinaccio was the most valuable arm out of the New York bullpen, adding plus 8.1 percent in win probability, ahead of Jimmy Cordero at plus 2.4 percent and Clay Holmes at plus 0.7 percent.