Los Angeles Dodgers at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays held off the Los Angeles Dodgers 11-10 on May 28, 2023, at Tropicana Field in a high-scoring contest that the DiamondIQ model had favored heavily from the start, assigning Tampa Bay a 66 percent pre-game home win probability that ultimately reached 100 percent by the final out. The game's decisive stretch came in the second inning, when Isaac Paredes delivered a double off Gavin Stone that swung win probability by 11.9 percent in Tampa Bay's favor, helping fuel a six-run frame that gave the Rays an early foothold. Los Angeles fought back aggressively in the third, where Max Muncy's fielder's choice off Josh Fleming added 18.0 percent in win probability for the Dodgers, the single largest swing of the game, and the Dodgers pushed across four runs to narrow the deficit. The sixth inning proved pivotal once more, as Chris Taylor launched a home run off Fleming worth 13.8 percent in added win probability, followed immediately by a J.D. Martinez home run off the same pitcher adding another 11.5 percent, briefly making this a genuinely contested game.

Despite that late Dodger surge, Tampa Bay's pitching staff ultimately secured the outcome. Jason Adam was the standout on the mound, contributing 25.9 percent in win probability added, the top mark of any pitcher in the game, while Jalen Beeks added 8.3 percent and Shelby Miller contributed 3.5 percent. Offensively for Tampa Bay, Luke Raley led the club with 19.7 percent in win probability added and a RE24 of plus-1.9, while Paredes, who also homered off Phil Bickford in the fourth inning for a swing of 10.5 percent, was a constant thorn. For Los Angeles, Chris Taylor finished as the top batter at plus-24.9 percent WPA and plus-2.5 RE24, and Muncy posted plus-22.9 percent WPA with a team-best plus-2.9 RE24, but the Dodgers' contributions came too intermittently against a Rays squad that built its lead in bursts and protected it with disciplined relief work.