Boston Red Sox at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Boston Red Sox defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks 2-1 at Chase Field on May 27, 2023, handing Arizona a loss despite the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate giving the home side a 56% chance of winning. Boston scored all of its runs in the fourth inning, with a Pablo Reyes walk off Kyle Nelson generating a 9.0% swing in win probability and an Enrique Hernández single off Zach Davies adding another 8.1%, accounting for both Red Sox runs while Arizona managed to plate just one in the opening inning and went scoreless the rest of the way.

The game's most consequential moment came in the bottom of the ninth, when Kenley Jansen struck out Corbin Carroll to swing win probability 31.6% in Boston's favor and seal the victory. Carroll, despite finishing as the top batter by WPA at plus 26.7%, ultimately represented the tying run that never came through, as Pavin Smith's flyout off Jansen earlier in the inning had already deflated Arizona's chances by 8.5%. The Diamondbacks had also seen Geraldo Perdomo fly out to Chris Martin in the eighth for a negative 12.9% swing, effectively draining whatever momentum the home team had built.

On the pitching side, Kutter Crawford led all pitchers with a 23.7% WPA contribution, followed closely by Garrett Whitlock at 17.2% and Martin at 17.1%, a trio that collectively locked down Arizona's lineup after the first inning. Masataka Yoshida contributed a plus 6.6% WPA and a 0.7 RE24 at the plate to support the Red Sox offensive effort. Boston finished with six hits and no errors against Arizona's three hits and one error, a clean execution that the DiamondIQ model ultimately reflected with a final home win probability of zero percent.