St. Louis Cardinals at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Cleveland Guardians 2-1 in ten innings on May 27, 2023, at Progressive Field, handing the home side a result that the DiamondIQ model's estimate made increasingly unlikely as the game progressed. Cleveland entered with a 53% pre-game win probability but finished at 0%, a collapse that unfolded quietly across a low-scoring contest in which St. Louis managed just two hits to Cleveland's eight yet found a way to manufacture the decisive run in extras.

The tenth inning defined the game in both directions. On the St. Louis side, the Cardinals navigated a critical sequence against Nick Sandlin that featured a Lars Nootbaar strikeout that swung win probability 21.1 points in Cleveland's favor, a Paul DeJong groundout adding another 16.4 points, and an Óscar Mercado walk shifting 15.1 points back toward St. Louis — a back-and-forth half-inning that ultimately ended with the Cardinals pushing across a run. In the bottom half, Gabriel Arias's groundout off Giovanny Gallegos ended the game, representing the single largest win-probability swing of the night at 31.6 points, a fitting capstone on Cleveland's inability to convert despite consistent baserunner presence. Ryan Helsley had already kept the Guardians at bay in the ninth, where Steven Kwan's flyout generated a 14.0-point swing.

Among the standout performers by the DiamondIQ model's metrics, Sam Hentges led all pitchers at plus-40.8% WPA, followed by Jack Flaherty at plus-30.5% and Tanner Bibee at plus-19.8%, a trio that collectively reflected how thoroughly pitching dominated in a game where 10 combined runs were decidedly not on offer. On the batting side, Arias topped position players at plus-31.6% WPA despite a negative RE24 of minus-0.1, while Mercado's walk contributed a plus-0.6 RE24, the lone positive run-environment figure among the top offensive contributors.