New York Mets at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets defeated the Colorado Rockies 5-2 at Coors Field on May 26, 2023, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Colorado win sitting at 44% before first pitch and falling to 0% by the final out. The Mets struck first with two runs in the opening inning and remained in control through much of the game, but the decisive stretch came in the fifth inning. Brandon Nimmo's triple off Connor Seabold shifted win probability by 8.1 percentage points in New York's favor, and Brett Baty followed with a single that pushed the swing to an additional 8.5 points, together accounting for the two-run burst that extended the Mets' lead to 4-1. Nimmo finished as the game's most impactful offensive player, accumulating a WPA of plus-17.3 percent and an RE24 of plus-2.7, driving much of New York's offensive contribution by the model's accounting.

Colorado's most consequential moment came in the bottom of the eighth, when Charlie Blackmon launched a home run off David Robertson that represented a 12.0-point swing in the Rockies' favor, bringing the score to 5-2 and briefly reintroducing some tension. Blackmon finished with a WPA of plus-8.2 percent and an RE24 of plus-1.0 for Colorado, while Ryan McMahon also contributed positively at plus-7.4 percent WPA and plus-1.1 RE24. However, the Rockies could not sustain the pressure, as Ezequiel Tovar's flyout against Max Scherzer in the seventh had already cost Colorado 8.3 percentage points of win probability, and Alan Trejo's single in the ninth off Adam Ottavino with the game effectively sealed represented only a minor late threat. Max Scherzer was the dominant force of the evening, finishing with a WPA of plus-31.7 percent for New York, by far the largest single-player contribution in the game by that measure.