Los Angeles Dodgers at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 9-3 at Tropicana Field on May 26, 2023, a result that moved squarely in line with the DiamondIQ model's estimate, which opened with a 67 percent pre-game home win probability and reached 100 percent by game's end. Tampa Bay built its advantage early, scoring in five of the first four innings and never allowing Los Angeles to gain a foothold after the opening frame.

The decisive stretch came in the third and fourth innings, where the win-probability ledger shifted sharply in Tampa Bay's favor. Christian Bethancourt's single off Noah Syndergaard in the bottom of the third was the single largest swing of the game, adding 8.3 percent win probability for the Rays. Los Angeles compounded its own trouble in that same inning when Max Muncy grounded into a double play off Cooper Criswell, costing the Dodgers 7.5 percent win probability, and the pattern repeated in the fourth when Miguel Rojas hit into another double play off Criswell, a swing of negative 7.6 percent. Yandy Díaz then extended the Tampa Bay lead with a home run off Syndergaard in the bottom of the fourth, adding another 6.3 percent to the Rays' probability.

Bethancourt finished as the game's most impactful offensive player by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting a WPA of plus 12.1 percent and an RE24 of plus 1.8, while Díaz contributed plus 10.4 percent WPA and a game-high plus 2.6 RE24. On the pitching side, Cooper Criswell led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 7.2 percent, benefiting in part from the two Los Angeles double plays hit directly into his hands. Will Smith was the lone Dodger to register a meaningful positive contribution, drawing a key walk in the third for a WPA of plus 5.6 percent, but Tampa Bay's consistent run production across the lineup left Los Angeles with little margin to work with.