St. Louis Cardinals at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 4 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
The Cleveland Guardians defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 4-3 at Progressive Field on May 26, 2023, in a game that turned decisively in the fifth inning. The DiamondIQ model entered the contest giving Cleveland a 55% win probability, and by the final out that figure had climbed to 100%.
The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the fifth, when the Guardians erupted for all four of their runs against Cardinals starter Matthew Liberatore. Amed Rosario delivered the most impactful blow of that frame with a double that shifted win probability 11.8 percentage points in Cleveland's favor, while Steven Kwan added a single worth 9.1 points and Myles Straw contributed another single worth 8.2 points in the same inning. St. Louis mounted a slow comeback, scoring single runs in the sixth, seventh, and ninth, but the Cardinals' efforts to claw back were repeatedly blunted at critical moments. In the top of the seventh, Nolan Gorman's pop out against Trevor Stephan cost the Cardinals 12.2 percentage points of win probability, and in the eighth, Paul DeJong grounded into a double play against Enyel De Los Santos that erased another 10.6 points of Cardinals equity.
On the individual ledger, Rosario led all position players with a WPA of plus-13.0 and a RE24 of plus-1.5, making him the clear catalyst of the decisive fifth inning. Lars Nootbaar was the most productive Cardinal in win-probability terms at plus-7.7, though his contributions were not enough to overcome Cleveland's early burst. On the pitching side, De Los Santos paced the Guardians' bullpen with a WPA of plus-10.6, Shane Bieber contributed plus-9.4, and Emmanuel Clase closed things out adding plus-6.3, preserving the one-run lead through the ninth.