Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| ATL | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | 8 | 12 | 0 |
The Story
The Atlanta Braves defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 8-5 on May 25, 2023, at Truist Park, a result that aligned closely with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a 69% pre-game home win probability for Atlanta. The Phillies drew first blood with a three-run second inning, but the Braves answered quickly and methodically chipped away throughout the middle innings. Austin Riley's home run off Aaron Nola in the bottom of the fifth was a pivotal swing, adding 13.0% to Atlanta's win probability and signaling the Braves were not content to let Philadelphia hold the momentum. Bryce Harper had countered with a home run of his own off Dylan Dodd in the top of the fifth, a play that registered plus-12.4% win probability for Philadelphia, but the Phillies could not sustain that pressure, as Alec Bohm's double play in the third had already cost them 15.6% in win probability and stalled what could have been a more commanding advantage.
The eighth inning sealed Atlanta's fate decisively. Trailing and facing Gregory Soto, Marcell Ozuna laced a double that added 13.0% to the Braves' win probability, and Travis d'Arnaud followed with a single that pushed that figure another 17.9%, the single most impactful plate appearance of the game. Ozuna finished as the top offensive contributor by WPA at plus-19.6% with a RE24 of plus-1.7, while Riley posted the best RE24 of the group at plus-2.4 alongside his plus-13.2% WPA. D'Arnaud's plus-17.9% WPA underscored how critical his hit was to putting the game away in the three-run eighth-inning rally.
On the mound, Atlanta's bullpen took over the win-probability work in the late innings, with Nick Anderson leading all pitchers at plus-10.6% WPA, followed by Seranthony Dominguez at plus-8.3% and Kirby Yates at plus-7.3%. The Phillies finished with 11 hits but committed no errors, leaving runs on the table rather than giving them away defensively. Atlanta's 12 hits were equally clean, and the Braves' ability to concentrate their damage in critical spots, particularly the second inning and the decisive eighth, proved the difference in a game where the DiamondIQ model's estimate reached 100% by the final out.