Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 0 |
The Story
The Colorado Rockies edged the Miami Marlins 7-6 on May 25, 2023, at Coors Field in a game that swung dramatically in its final two innings. The DiamondIQ model opened with Colorado holding a 48 percent home win probability, and while that figure fluctuated through eight innings of relatively low-scoring baseball, it closed at 100 percent as the Rockies survived a late Miami surge to take the victory.
The decisive sequence unfolded in the bottom of the eighth, when Colorado turned a close game into what appeared to be a comfortable lead. Ryan McMahon's double off Dylan Floro was the catalyst, adding 15.1 percent to Colorado's win probability, and Mike Moustakas followed with a single that pushed that swing to 17.7 percent, as the Rockies plated four runs in the frame to take what looked like a commanding advantage. Then Miami responded in dramatic fashion in the top of the ninth, when Garrett Cooper launched a home run off Pierce Johnson that generated the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus-36.6 percent, pulling the Marlins within one and suddenly threatening a full reversal. Colorado's Ezequiel Tovar answered in the bottom half with a clutch single off Huascar Brazobán, worth 15.9 percent in win probability, to close out the contest.
On the individual side, Cooper's late heroics made him Miami's top performer by WPA at plus-36.6 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.8, though it came in a losing effort. McMahon finished as Colorado's offensive standout with a combined WPA of plus-22.5 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.0, while Yuli Gurriel matched that WPA figure at plus-22.5 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.6, his third-inning triple off Kyle Freeland having added 15.0 percent to Miami's chances at the time. On the mound, Daniel Bard led Colorado's pitching staff with a WPA contribution of plus-14.3 percent, followed by Brent Suter at plus-12.0 percent and Andrew Nardi at plus-11.8 percent as the trio collectively held Miami at bay long enough for the Rockies to secure the one-run win.