Texas Rangers at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The Texas Rangers held on to defeat the Pittsburgh Pirates 3-2 at PNC Park on May 24, 2023, scoring all three of their runs in the first inning and then surviving a late Pirates rally to close out the win. The DiamondIQ model's estimate gave Pittsburgh a 42 percent chance of winning before first pitch, but that number fell steadily as the game wore on, reaching zero by the final out.

The decisive moments came in the eighth and ninth innings, where the game's largest win-probability swings defined the outcome. Jack Suwinski's strikeout against Will Smith in the bottom of the eighth was the single most damaging blow to Pittsburgh's chances, swinging win probability 29.8 percent in Texas's favor. A Connor Joe walk off José Leclerc briefly breathed life back into the Pirates' prospects, adding 16.5 percent, but Rodolfo Castro's flyout to end that inning against Smith erased much of that momentum, costing Pittsburgh another 13.9 percent. In the ninth, Andrew McCutchen's flyout off Smith ended the game and represented a 31.6 percent swing in Texas's favor, closing the door entirely.

Among the game's top individual performers, Martín Pérez led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 32.0 percent, while Will Smith added plus 27.0 percent out of the bullpen to secure the victory. Dauri Moreta contributed plus 10.6 percent in his own right. On the offensive side, McCutchen and Connor Joe were the most consequential Pirates hitters by the DiamondIQ model's measure, each generating over 18 percent in win probability added despite the loss, while Corey Seager contributed plus 6.7 percent for Texas on a night when the Rangers needed every run they scored in that opening frame.