San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The Washington Nationals defeated the San Diego Padres 5-3 at Nationals Park on May 24, 2023, in a game that was effectively decided in the second inning. Washington erupted for four runs in the bottom of the second against Ryan Weathers, a burst that shifted the DiamondIQ model's estimate dramatically in the Nationals' favor. Keibert Ruiz contributed a key single in that frame worth plus 8.7 percent win probability, and a Joey Meneses flyout that plated a run added another 7.4 percent, underscoring how efficiently Washington converted its opportunities in that decisive stretch. San Diego managed brief resistance in the fourth and fifth innings, with Rougned Odor lifting a home run off Trevor Williams worth plus 13.3 percent win probability and Ha-Seong Kim adding another solo shot in the fifth worth plus 9.1 percent, but the Padres' three errors compounded the challenge of overcoming that early deficit.

The individual performance leaders told the story of Washington's balanced contribution. Alex Call led all position players with a plus 14.1 percent win probability added and a RE24 of plus 1.7, while Lane Thomas posted plus 10.3 percent WPA, his fourth-inning double off Weathers adding 7.9 percent to that total on its own. Odor paced the Padres with plus 9.6 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.8 despite finishing on the losing side. Washington's bullpen then closed the door methodically, with Hunter Harvey leading relievers at plus 11.3 percent WPA, followed by Carl Edwards Jr. at plus 6.9 percent and Kyle Finnegan at plus 6.3 percent. The DiamondIQ model opened the game with a 52 percent home win probability and finished at 100 percent, a reflection of how little doubt remained after that pivotal second inning.