MLB Recap · May 24, 2023

Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

MIA10
Final
COL2

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
MIA00023230010140
COL100001000240

The Story

The Miami Marlins handed the Colorado Rockies a decisive 10-2 defeat at Coors Field on May 24, 2023, rolling up 14 hits while committing no errors. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Colorado a 46 percent chance of winning at home, but by the final out that estimate had fallen to zero, reflecting how completely Miami controlled the contest from the middle innings onward.

Colorado starter Karl Kauffmann bore the brunt of the damage, appearing in each of the five biggest win-probability swings of the night. The most consequential came in the top of the fifth, when Luis Arraez doubled to shift win probability by plus-13.6 points in Miami's favor, extending a lead that had already taken shape an inning earlier. In the fourth, Joey Wendle's groundout had added 10.7 points of win probability — an unusual case where an out moved the needle so sharply because of the run-environment context — and Yuli Gurriel followed with a single worth plus-7.4 points. Wendle had also been involved in the game's biggest negative swing, a grounded-into-double-play in the second that cost Miami 9.5 points of win probability off Kauffmann, briefly keeping the game within reach for Colorado before the Marlins broke it open.

On the individual leaderboard, Gurriel led all batters with a plus-13.2 WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.1, making him the most impactful offensive contributor of the night by the DiamondIQ model's estimate. Jorge Soler added plus-7.5 WPA and Arraez plus-7.4 WPA. On the mound, Sandy Alcantara paced all pitchers with a plus-9.3 WPA, anchoring a staff that held Colorado to four hits and two runs across nine innings.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025MIA bats firstFinalCOL win %MIA win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 45.9% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Luis Arraez Double
Top 5th · off Karl Kauffmann
+13.6%
Joey Wendle Groundout
Top 4th · off Karl Kauffmann
+10.7%
Joey Wendle Grounded Into DP
Top 2nd · off Karl Kauffmann
-9.5%
Yuli Gurriel Single
Top 4th · off Karl Kauffmann
+7.4%
Jacob Stallings Double
Top 5th · off Karl Kauffmann
+6.6%

Top Batters by WPA

Yuli Gurriel+13.2%+2.1 RE24
Jorge Soler+7.5%+0.1 RE24
Luis Arraez+7.4%+0.7 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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