Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 4-3 on May 24, 2023, at Truist Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 54% pre-game home win probability to a certainty by the final out. The game was a low-scoring affair through three innings before Atlanta broke through in the fourth, and Marcell Ozuna delivered the most impactful single play of the night in the bottom of the fifth, a home run off Tony Gonsolin that swung win probability by 21.1 points and gave Atlanta a lead it would ultimately protect. The Dodgers threatened seriously in the top of the eighth, when Miguel Vargas and J.D. Martinez each laced doubles off Nick Anderson, shifting the model's estimate by 18.3 and 14.1 points respectively and pulling Los Angeles within one run heading to the final frame.

Atlanta answered that eighth-inning rally decisively in the bottom of the ninth against Phil Bickford. Austin Riley's double registered a 17.5-point win-probability swing, and Ozzie Albies followed with a sacrifice fly worth another 16.9 points, restoring Atlanta's cushion and effectively closing out the game. The Braves managed only five hits on the night compared to twelve for Los Angeles, but their timely production proved far more damaging at the moments that mattered most.

Ozuna finished as Atlanta's most valuable offensive contributor by RE24 at plus-1.4, while Vargas led all batters in WPA at plus-19.8 despite his team falling short. On the mound, Bryce Elder paced Atlanta's staff with a plus-14.1 WPA, and Raisel Iglesias added plus-13.5, helping strand the Dodgers' late push and seal the one-run victory for the home side.