Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds rallied past the Philadelphia Phillies 6-4 on April 9, 2023, at Citizens Bank Park, erasing a deficit that had the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Phillies win sitting at 54% before first pitch. Philadelphia built its lead on Alec Bohm's fourth-inning home run off Connor Overton, a swing that shifted win probability 19.4 points in the Phillies' favor and stood as Philadelphia's most consequential offensive moment of the night. The Reds chipped away with a run in the eighth, as Jason Vosler delivered a double off Craig Kimbrel that moved Cincinnati's chances by 15.2 points, setting the stage for what was to come.

The game turned decisively in the top of the ninth against Seranthony Dominguez. TJ Friedl opened the inning with a single that added 15.3 points to Cincinnati's win probability, but it was Jake Fraley who delivered the decisive blow, lacing a double that swung the model's estimate by 50.2 points and gave the Reds the lead for good. The Reds scored three times in the inning to go ahead 6-4, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Philadelphia win fell to 0% by the final out. Bohm finished as the top WPA performer among Phillies batters at plus-32.0, though his ninth-inning flyout off Ian Gibaut, which moved Cincinnati's probability 14.4 points in the Reds' favor, illustrated how quickly Philadelphia's chances dissolved.

Fraley finished as the night's top performer by WPA at plus-46.1 with an RE24 of plus-1.8, his ninth-inning double proving to be the single most valuable play of the game. On the mound, Fernando Cruz led Cincinnati's relief corps with a WPA of plus-9.1, followed by Jose Alvarado at plus-7.2 and Gregory Soto at plus-6.4, as the three combined to protect the late lead and strand any remaining Philadelphia threats.