San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres dismantled the Atlanta Braves 10-2 at Truist Park on April 9, 2023, turning what the DiamondIQ model opened as a 54 percent home-win situation into a complete runaway. San Diego plated runs in five of nine innings, building a 5-0 lead through four frames before adding three more in the fifth to effectively close the book on Atlanta. The Braves managed just two runs across the final seven innings combined, and the model's estimate of Atlanta's chances fell all the way to zero percent by game's end.

The decisive moment came in the top of the third inning, when Nelson Cruz drove a home run off Dylan Dodd that swung San Diego's win probability by plus-19.5 percent, the single largest play of the game. Manny Machado also contributed a single in that same frame off Dodd, adding another plus-5.1 percent swing. Atlanta's best chance to respond came in the bottom of the third, but Austin Riley grounded into a double play off Seth Lugo, a swing of minus-10.1 percent from the Braves' perspective that extinguished whatever momentum Atlanta might have sought. Matt Olson drew a walk in the same inning for a modest plus-5.4 percent uptick, but it amounted to nothing against Lugo's command of the situation.

Cruz finished as the game's most impactful performer by a wide margin, posting a cumulative WPA of plus-20.6 percent and an RE24 of plus-4.0, while Trent Grisham contributed plus-5.6 percent WPA and Machado added plus-4.9 percent. On the mound, Seth Lugo was the standout, accumulating plus-16.5 percent WPA as he stifled Atlanta's lineup across his innings of work. Nabil Crismatt and Danny Young each finished at plus-0.0 percent WPA, contributing clean outings in support of Lugo's dominant showing.