Miami Marlins at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins handed the New York Mets a 7-2 defeat at Citi Field on April 9, 2023, erasing a pre-game 54 percent home win probability the DiamondIQ model had assigned to New York and running it all the way to zero. Miami struck first with a three-run first inning and never surrendered the lead, adding three more runs in the fifth to put the game effectively out of reach against a Mets offense that could manage only two runs on nine hits.

The decisive sequence came in the top of the fifth inning against Carlos Carrasco, where Garrett Cooper's home run delivered the single biggest win-probability swing of the night at plus 11.1 percent, followed closely by Jazz Chisholm Jr.'s single at plus 9.1 percent as Miami extended its advantage. The Mets' best chance to claw back came in the fourth inning, when Eduardo Escobar's double off Braxton Garrett generated a plus 9.9 percent swing in New York's favor, but Francisco Alvarez's strikeout two batters later, worth minus 9.0 percent, extinguished the threat. A Tommy Pham forceout in the second inning, costing the Mets 9.8 percent in win probability, similarly snuffed out an earlier New York opportunity.

On the individual ledger, Jeff McNeil led all position players with a plus 13.5 percent WPA and a plus 2.0 RE24, though it was Miami's contributors who dominated the pitching side of the ledger. Braxton Garrett was the game's most impactful arm, posting a plus 16.6 percent WPA, with Tanner Scott adding plus 9.5 percent in relief. Garrett Cooper and Jon Berti rounded out the Marlins' standout performers, finishing with plus 10.7 and plus 8.2 percent WPA respectively as Miami collected 11 hits and pulled away convincingly on the road.