Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Cleveland Guardians outlasted the Seattle Mariners 7-6 in 12 innings on April 9, 2023, at Progressive Field in a game that required extra baseball before the DiamondIQ model's estimate shifted from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to a final 100 percent. Cleveland scored twice in both the ninth and twelfth innings to claim the walk-off victory, while Seattle answered with two runs in the eleventh to keep the game alive before ultimately falling short.

The two most decisive moments belonged to the Guardians. Will Brennan's double off Matt Brash in the bottom of the ninth represented a 49.4 percent swing in win probability, dragging Cleveland back from the brink and forcing extra innings. Then in the bottom of the twelfth, Josh Naylor's groundout off Penn Murfee delivered the winning run and a 51.3 percent win-probability swing, the single largest play of the game. Seattle had its own critical contributions in the extra innings, with Jarred Kelenic's double off Enyel De Los Santos in the eleventh generating a 33.7 percent swing and Teoscar Hernandez's single off Nick Sandlin in the twelfth adding another 36.7 percent, but neither rally proved enough to close the door on Cleveland.

Among the individual performers, Brennan led all batters by WPA at plus 60.2 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.9, making him the most impactful offensive player on either side. Kelenic finished at plus 50.1 percent WPA for Seattle, and Naylor contributed plus 44.6 percent despite a negative RE24 of minus 0.2, underscoring how his walk-off situation inflated his win-probability value. On the pitching side, George Kirby paced all hurlers with a plus 36.1 percent WPA for Seattle, while Zach Plesac and Trevor Gott each contributed positively for Cleveland at plus 23.5 and plus 23.3 percent, respectively.