MLB Recap · April 7, 2023

Kansas City Royals at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap

KC3
Final
SF1

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
KC010100010390
SF010000000151

The Story

The Kansas City Royals defeated the San Francisco Giants 3-1 at Oracle Park on April 7, 2023, handing the Giants a loss despite their 54% pre-game win probability from the DiamondIQ model. The Royals scored in the second, fourth, and eighth innings, while the Giants managed their lone run in the second, never finding a path back into the game.

The decisive sequence came in the eighth inning, where Salvador Perez's home run off Taylor Rogers shifted win probability by 18.0 percentage points in Kansas City's favor, representing the single largest swing of the game. That blow proved critical in a tight contest, though the inning was not without turbulence — Bobby Witt Jr. hit into a double play off Rogers that cost the Royals 9.8 percentage points of win probability in the same frame. Vinnie Pasquantino had provided an earlier lift with a fourth-inning home run off Alex Cobb, a swing worth 11.3 WPA that gave Kansas City a lead it would not relinquish. The Giants mounted a ninth-inning threat when Joc Pederson laced a triple off Scott Barlow worth 13.1 percentage points, briefly complicating matters, but Thairo Estrada's lineout immediately surrendered 8.5 points of that gain and ended the rally.

Among the standout individual performances, Pasquantino finished as the top batter by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, accumulating 13.8% WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.1. On the mound, Brad Keller led all pitchers with 23.5% WPA, supported by Aroldis Chapman at 13.3%. Alex Cobb absorbed two home run balls yet still posted a 12.5% WPA contribution for San Francisco, a reflection of his otherwise steady work in a game the Giants ultimately could not win.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025KC bats firstFinalSF win %KC win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 54% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Salvador Perez Home Run
Top 8th · off Taylor Rogers
+18.0%
Joc Pederson Triple
Bot 9th · off Scott Barlow
+13.1%
Vinnie Pasquantino Home Run
Top 4th · off Alex Cobb
+11.3%
Bobby Witt Jr. Double Play
Top 8th · off Taylor Rogers
-9.8%
Thairo Estrada Lineout
Bot 9th · off Scott Barlow
-8.5%

Top Batters by WPA

Vinnie Pasquantino+13.8%+1.1 RE24
Joc Pederson+11.2%+0.6 RE24
Salvador Perez+9.5%-0.3 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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