San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres held off the Atlanta Braves 5-4 at Truist Park on April 7, 2023, completing a comeback win that the DiamondIQ model had given the home side a 54 percent chance of winning before first pitch. San Diego built a 5-0 lead through the first two innings before Atlanta responded with three runs in the third and added single runs in the fifth and sixth to pull within one. The Padres ultimately preserved the margin through nine innings, finishing with seven hits and one error against Atlanta's six hits and clean defense.

The game's most consequential sequence unfolded in the seventh and eighth innings, where Atlanta had chances to tie or take the lead but was repeatedly turned away by Luis García. Eddie Rosario's pop out in the bottom of the seventh cost the Braves 14.6 percent in win probability, and the eighth inning proved even costlier: Ronald Acuña Jr. lined out to shed another 16.5 percent, followed by Marcell Ozuna grounding into a double play that erased another 19.0 percent. García finished as the game's most valuable pitcher by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting a WPA of plus-34.8 percent. Josh Hader closed it out in the ninth, though Sean Murphy reached on a forceout that briefly swung win probability 27.0 percent in Atlanta's favor before the game ended.

Sean Murphy was Atlanta's most valuable offensive contributor at plus-36.6 percent WPA, a figure driven in part by his fifth-inning walk off Nick Martinez worth 12.3 percent that kept the Braves' rally alive. Austin Riley was close behind at plus-34.5 percent WPA with a RE24 of plus-2.5, reflecting meaningful run-context production. For San Diego, Jake Cronenworth contributed plus-7.0 percent WPA despite a slightly negative RE24 of minus-0.4, and Brent Honeywell provided plus-15.2 percent WPA out of the bullpen to bridge the gap to García's dominant stretch.