Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Seattle Mariners overcame a three-run deficit to defeat the Cleveland Guardians 5-3 at Progressive Field on April 7, 2023, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had pegged as a 54 percent pre-game home win probability for Cleveland down to zero by the final out. The Guardians built their lead incrementally, scoring in the first, third, and fourth innings, but Seattle answered with a two-run fifth and a three-run sixth to seize control and never relinquish it.

The decisive sequence began in the top of the fifth, when J.P. Crawford delivered a double off Aaron Civale that swung win probability 12.1 percent in Seattle's favor, and Ty France followed with a single worth 9.6 percent. Crawford struck again in the sixth with another double off Civale, this one shifting the probability an additional 13.2 percent toward the Mariners. The biggest single moment of the game came moments later when Julio Rodríguez launched a home run off Nick Sandlin, a swing that moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate 24.8 percent toward Seattle and effectively put the game away. Crawford and Rodríguez each finished as the top offensive contributors with identical WPA figures of plus 21.8 percent, though Crawford's 1.9 RE24 edged Rodríguez's 1.1 in contextual run value.

Seattle's bullpen secured the outcome with the same efficiency the offense had shown. Andrés Muñoz led all pitchers with a 13.3 percent win probability contribution, followed by Matt Brash at 8.8 percent and Trevor Gott at 7.5 percent. Will Brennan's strikeout to end the ninth inning, recorded against Paul Sewald, added a final 14.4 percent swing in Seattle's favor from Cleveland's perspective, closing out a game in which the Mariners authored every significant probability shift after the fourth inning.