Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 6-3 at Chase Field on April 7, 2023, in a game that shifted decisively in the sixth inning after the DiamondIQ model had opened with Arizona holding a 54 percent pre-game win probability. The Diamondbacks built their winning margin through two consecutive home runs in the bottom of the sixth off Clayton Kershaw, with Evan Longoria's blast carrying the single largest win-probability swing of the night at plus 14.8 percent, followed immediately by Corbin Carroll's shot that added another 13.8 percent. Those back-to-back blows turned a close contest into a comfortable Arizona advantage, and the Diamondbacks added two more runs in the eighth on a Nick Ahmed single off Yency Almonte that accounted for an additional 11.4 percent swing in Arizona's favor. The Dodgers' most impactful moment came in the top of the fourth, when Chris Taylor hit a home run off Madison Bumgarner for a plus 11.3 percent swing, but Los Angeles was unable to sustain any corresponding pressure.

Longoria and Carroll were the clear individual standouts by the DiamondIQ model's accounting. Longoria finished with a plus 20.9 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.7, while Carroll posted plus 20.2 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.2, the latter also having contributed a meaningful single in the third inning off Kershaw worth 10.6 percent. Gabriel Moreno added quiet but positive value at plus 8.1 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.0. On the pitching side, Drey Jameson led Arizona's staff with a plus 22.4 percent WPA, and Miguel Castro contributed plus 12.7 percent out of the bullpen, effectively closing the door on any Dodger rally. The DiamondIQ model's estimate reached 100 percent by game's end, reflecting how thoroughly Arizona controlled the contest once the sixth-inning power barrage broke it open. The final line showed Arizona with ten hits against the Dodgers' five, both teams committing no errors.