Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Cincinnati Reds 5-2 at Citizens Bank Park on April 6, 2023, in a game the DiamondIQ model opened at 54 percent in favor of the home side and closed at 100 percent. Philadelphia built its lead incrementally, scoring in the second, fifth, seventh, and eighth innings, while Cincinnati managed single runs in the fifth and sixth to keep the game within reach through the middle frames.

The decisive swing came in the bottom of the seventh, when J.T. Realmuto hit a home run off Derek Law that shifted win probability by 26.2 percentage points, effectively sealing the outcome. Earlier, Kyle Schwarber's double in the bottom of the fifth off Hunter Greene added 14.2 percentage points and put Philadelphia in a stronger position after the Reds had briefly pulled within a run. Cincinnati had its own moments of pressure in the sixth inning, with Tyler Stephenson and TJ Friedl each doubling off Zack Wheeler — adding 9.9 and 8.5 percentage points respectively — and José Barrero's single off Wheeler in the fifth had contributed another 8.0 percentage points, but the Reds could not convert those opportunities into enough runs to threaten Philadelphia's hold on the game.

Realmuto finished as the top performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting a WPA of plus-23.1 percent and an RE24 of plus-1.5. Nick Castellanos contributed plus-9.3 percent WPA and plus-1.4 RE24, while Trea Turner added plus-6.1 percent WPA. Out of the bullpen, Alex Young led Phillies relievers with plus-10.7 percent WPA, followed by Andrew Bellatti at plus-9.6 percent and Gregory Soto at plus-8.3 percent, a trio that collectively held Cincinnati scoreless over the game's final innings to preserve the win.