Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap

The Boston Red Sox handed the Detroit Tigers a 6-3 defeat at Comerica Park on April 6, 2023, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had opened as a 54 percent pre-game home win probability for Detroit all the way down to zero. The game turned decisively in the top of the sixth inning, when Adam Duvall launched a home run off José Cisnero that swung win probability by 37.1 percentage points in Boston's favor, the single most impactful play of the afternoon. That blow was the centerpiece of a four-run sixth that broke the game open after the two clubs had traded single runs in the third and fourth innings. Detroit had briefly grabbed the lead in the second when Jake Rogers connected for a home run off Chris Sale, a swing worth 12.7 percentage points of win probability for the Tigers, but the lead proved short-lived.

Rafael Devers was the other offensive engine for Boston, posting a team-leading 19.9 percent total WPA on the night. His fourth-inning home run off Spencer Turnbull was worth 10.4 percentage points, and he added a double in that pivotal sixth inning worth another 9.8 points. Duvall finished as the game's top performer overall at plus-34.3 percent WPA and plus-2.8 RE24, while Miguel Cabrera provided Detroit's brightest offensive moment at plus-7.9 percent WPA. Boston's bullpen closed the door cleanly, with Chris Martin, John Schreiber, and Ryan Brasier contributing 6.3, 6.0, and 5.2 percentage points of win probability respectively, and Schreiber further benefited when Nick Maton grounded into a double play in the bottom of the sixth, a swing of negative 10.1 percentage points against Detroit that effectively ended any hope of a rally.