MLB Recap · April 5, 2023

Minnesota Twins at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

MIN2
Final
MIA5

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
MIN000000101260
MIA10000004-571

The Story

The Miami Marlins defeated the Minnesota Twins 5-2 on April 5, 2023, at loanDepot park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening at 54 percent in favor of Miami and closing at 100 percent after a pivotal eighth inning erased any remaining uncertainty.

The game was a tightly contested pitchers' duel through most of regulation before Miami blew it open in the bottom of the eighth. Jorge Soler delivered the decisive blow, a home run off Caleb Thielbar that added 23.0 percent to Miami's win probability, the single largest swing of the night. Bryan De La Cruz followed with a single, also off Thielbar, that added another 18.2 percent, pushing the Marlins from a tenuous lead to a commanding one and accounting for most of Miami's four-run eighth that turned a close game into a comfortable final. Minnesota had briefly shown life in the seventh when Trevor Larnach singled off Jesus Luzardo to add 14.3 percent to the Twins' win probability, with Ryan Jeffers extending the threat via a double that contributed another 6.9 percent, but the rally produced only one run and left the Twins trailing.

Among individual performers, Soler led all batters with a WPA of plus-21.8 and an RE24 of plus-3.2, his home run providing the clearest inflection point of the contest. De La Cruz posted a WPA of plus-15.0 to complement his timely single, while Larnach finished as Minnesota's most impactful bat at plus-6.3 WPA. On the mound, Pablo Lopez led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-26.7, and Luzardo contributed plus-23.1 despite the Twins scoring against him in the seventh, with Dylan Floro adding plus-10.6 in relief to close things out for Miami.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025MIN bats firstFinalMIA win %MIN win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 54% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Jorge Soler Home Run
Bot 8th · off Caleb Thielbar
+23.0%
Bryan De La Cruz Single
Bot 8th · off Caleb Thielbar
+18.2%
Trevor Larnach Single
Top 7th · off Jesús Luzardo
+14.3%
Jose F Miranda Flyout
Top 6th · off Jesús Luzardo
-8.8%
Ryan Jeffers Double
Top 7th · off Jesús Luzardo
+6.9%

Top Batters by WPA

Jorge Soler+21.8%+3.2 RE24
Bryan De La Cruz+15.0%+0.5 RE24
Trevor Larnach+6.3%+0.8 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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