New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers handed the New York Mets a lopsided 9-0 defeat at American Family Field on April 4, 2023, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of Milwaukee's win probability climbing from a pre-game 54 percent all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The game remained scoreless through five innings before Milwaukee broke it open with three runs in the sixth and four more in the seventh, turning what had been a tightly contested pitching duel into a rout. The Mets finished with eight hits but could not convert any of them into runs against a Milwaukee staff that controlled the game from start to finish.

The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the sixth inning, when Rowdy Tellez drove a home run off Max Scherzer that swung win probability by 8.7 percentage points, and Brian Anderson followed with another home run off Scherzer worth an additional 5.4 percentage points. Those back-to-back blows effectively ended any realistic path to a Mets comeback. On the New York side, the missed opportunities were just as telling: Francisco Lindor grounded into a double play in the third inning off Wade Miley, costing the Mets 6.8 percentage points of win probability, while Eduardo Escobar's flyout in the second and Starling Marte's groundout in the fifth surrendered another 6.1 and 5.9 percentage points respectively.

Wade Miley was the dominant individual performer, finishing with a WPA of plus-30.3, the clear engine behind Milwaukee's win. Brian Anderson led all position players with a WPA of plus-7.9 and a RE24 of plus-5.3, while Tellez contributed a WPA of plus-6.5. Jeff McNeil posted a WPA of plus-6.4 for New York despite the shutout loss, suggesting he created some of the Mets' better scoring opportunities that ultimately went unrealized. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting Miley's performance and the sixth-inning power surge as the central factors in Milwaukee's commanding victory.