Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks erased a two-run deficit and pulled away late to defeat the San Diego Padres 8-6 at Petco Park on April 4, 2023, swinging the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a San Diego win from 54 percent before first pitch all the way to zero by the final out. Arizona was held scoreless through four innings before the offense began to find its footing in the fifth, and the Diamondbacks then broke the game open with three runs in the sixth and four more in the eighth to put the contest well beyond San Diego's reach.

The decisive sequence came in the top of the eighth inning, where Jose Herrera delivered a single off Luis García that shifted win probability by plus-18.3 percent, the single largest swing of the night in Arizona's favor. Geraldo Perdomo had already done significant damage earlier, logging the game's fourth-largest WPA play with a double off Nabil Crismatt in the sixth inning worth plus-11.2 percent, and he finished as the night's top offensive contributor with a combined WPA of plus-27.3 percent and an RE24 of plus-2.8. Josh Rojas matched Herrera's plus-21.3 percent WPA figure while posting a RE24 of plus-2.6, making the two of them the backbone of Arizona's late rally alongside Perdomo. On the San Diego side, Xander Bogaerts provided the brightest moment with a fifth-inning home run off Zac Gallen worth plus-13.6 percent, but the Padres could not sustain any threat thereafter.

Arizona's pitching staff largely quieted San Diego after the early innings, with Yu Darvish leading all pitchers on the night at plus-10.8 percent WPA, followed by Domingo Tapia at plus-8.5 percent and Kevin Ginkel at plus-5.4 percent. The Padres' best late hope evaporated in the ninth when Nelson Cruz struck out against Drey Jameson, a plus-12.0 percent swing that effectively sealed the outcome and completed Arizona's road victory.