Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| SD | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
The Story
The San Diego Padres walked off with a 5-4 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks on April 3, 2023, at Petco Park in a game that was decided entirely in the ninth inning. San Diego entered the final frame trailing by a run after Evan Longoria's home run off Steven Wilson in the top of the ninth gave Arizona a 4-3 lead, a swing that represented a +38.4% shift in win probability according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate. That lead proved short-lived, as the Padres staged a stunning two-run comeback against Scott McGough to close out the contest.
The bottom of the ninth produced the two most consequential plays of the game. Ha-Seong Kim led off against McGough with a solo home run that tied the game at four, a +35.9% win-probability swing that reset the DiamondIQ model's estimate entirely. David Dahl then ended it with a walk-off home run, also off McGough, delivering a +44.1% win-probability impact — the single largest swing of the night. The game had opened with San Diego building a 2-0 lead in the first inning and Arizona responding with two runs in the second to level it, and Corbin Carroll had given the Diamondbacks a brief seventh-inning edge with a home run off Brent Honeywell worth +15.6% in win probability. Gabriel Moreno's grounded-into-double-play in the top of the ninth was Arizona's costliest out, a -8.3% swing that left the door open for San Diego's rally.
On the pitching side, Miguel Castro led all pitchers with a +13.8% win-probability contribution, followed by Ryan Weathers at +11.0% and Andrew Chafin at +10.9%. The DiamondIQ model had opened the game with San Diego holding a 54% win probability as the home team, and by the final out that figure had reached 100%.