New York Mets at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets handed the Miami Marlins a 5-1 defeat at loanDepot park on April 2, 2023, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 54 percent pre-game home win probability for Miami and reducing it to zero by the final out. The Mets struck first in the top of the first, and the game's most consequential sequence arrived in the top of the fifth, when Tommy Pham drove a home run off Trevor Rogers that shifted win probability 16.6 percent in New York's favor, the single largest swing of the night. Pham returned in the top of the seventh, this time lacing a double off Huascar Brazobán for an additional 6.8 percent swing, cementing his role as the primary offensive catalyst. Miami's best opportunity to gain traction came in the bottom of the second, when Luis Arraez grounded into a double play off Kodai Senga, a sequence that cost the Marlins 7.7 percent in win probability and effectively snuffed out whatever momentum the home side had managed to build after scoring in the first inning.

Pham finished as the game's top performer by a considerable margin, accumulating a combined WPA of plus-25.3 percent alongside a RE24 of plus-3.2, numbers that reflect both his direct run production and his situational impact. On the mound, Kodai Senga was equally dominant, posting a plus-30.0 percent WPA to lead all pitchers, with Jon Berti's lineout in the bottom of the first representing one of several early threats Senga neutralized. John Curtiss and Dennis Santana contributed out of the bullpen with WPA figures of plus-3.6 and plus-3.0 respectively, keeping the Marlins' four-hit night from developing into anything threatening. The Mets finished with five hits and committed no errors, while Miami's lone error compounded an already difficult evening against a pitching staff that controlled the game from the opening inning forward.